When the Duke Blue Devils pulled away in the final minutes to beat the Arkansas Razorbacks 80-71 on November 27, 2025, at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, it wasn’t just a win—it was a statement. The game exposed Arkansas’s growing pains, but it also confirmed what analysts across ESPN and CBS Sports have been saying: Duke, Purdue Boilermakers, and even a retooling Arkansas are making the right moves for the 2025-26 season. The twist? It’s not about star power alone. It’s about structure, timing, and the quiet confidence of coaches who know how to rebuild without losing identity.
How Duke Built a Machine Around One Player
Jon Scheyer didn’t inherit a dynasty—he inherited expectations. Since taking over from Mike Krzyzewski in March 2022, he’s operated with surgical precision. His philosophy? Build everything around Cooper Flagg. And it’s working. Flagg, now a sophomore, didn’t just show up against Arkansas—he controlled the game after a sluggish start. His 35 points weren’t just scoring; they were leadership. He drew double teams, found open shooters, and locked down defensively when it mattered most. Caleb Foster and Nick Khamenia’s pressure on Arkansas’s freshmen guards? That wasn’t luck. That was design.
What makes Duke’s approach so dangerous is how little they’ve deviated from their core. While other programs chase five-star recruits to fill gaps, Duke keeps doubling down on Flagg. ESPN reported in spring 2024 that Scheyer had “a singular focus” for the 2024-25 roster: build around Flagg. They’ve done the same for 2025-26. Cameron Boozer’s breakout (21 points in the second half) wasn’t a surprise—it was the next step in a plan. The Blue Devils aren’t just deep; they’re layered. Every role player knows his job. No one’s guessing. That’s rare in college basketball.
Purdue’s Quiet Revolution
While Duke gets the spotlight, Purdue has been quietly assembling a championship-caliber roster. Analysts like Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Lukas Harkins of Basket Under Review consistently project Purdue as a Final Four lock. Why? Because they didn’t just add talent—they added chemistry.
The Boilermakers lost key contributors from last season, but their transfers—especially the addition of a defensive anchor from the Big Ten’s lower tier—filled a glaring hole. Their frontcourt now has size, mobility, and rim protection. Their guards can space the floor and hit threes off movement. Unlike Duke, Purdue isn’t built around one superstar. It’s built around balance. And that’s why experts like Neil Paine and Brendan Marks see them as the most complete team in the country. If they stay healthy, they don’t just make the Final Four—they win it.
Arkansas: Promise, But Not Yet Polished
John Calipari didn’t lose to Duke because his team was bad. He lost because they didn’t know how to finish.
Arkansas led by five with under three minutes to play. Then came the collapse. Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas combined for 34 points. Trevon Brazile had a double-double. But Karter Knox and D.J. Wagner—two of the team’s most hyped returners—combined for five points. Why? Because Calipari shortened the rotation in the second half, trusting only his most reliable bodies. Billy Richmond III gave energy but turned it over five times. The offense stalled. The defense cracked.
“Arkansas has to figure out how to finish games,” Calipari said afterward. That’s the truth. The Razorbacks lost eight key players from last season, including Adou Thiero (15.1 PPG), Boogie Fland (13.5 PPG), and Johnell Davis (12.0 PPG). They brought in transfers Dylan Andrews (6.9 PPG from UCLA) and Drew Fielder (7.1 PPG from Georgetown), plus four-star freshman Spencer Ahrens. That’s a lot of new parts. And right now, they’re not clicking.
Calipari’s “positionless” system sounds great on paper. But when your top scorers are freshmen and your veteran guards are silent, you don’t have a system—you have a gamble. Upcoming games against fourth-ranked Louisville, second-ranked Houston, and twentieth-ranked Texas Tech will test whether those gambles pay off. Right now, they’re still in the experimental phase.
Final Four Projections: A Pattern Emerges
Here’s what’s fascinating: look at the Final Four predictions from November 27, 2025. Duke appears in 11 of the 16 projections. Purdue shows up in 10. And only three analysts left them both out. Meanwhile, Houston, Florida, Louisville, and Connecticut each appear in six or more. But Duke and Purdue? They’re the only two teams that show up in the majority of forecasts, regardless of the predictor.
That’s not coincidence. It’s consensus. Analysts aren’t just going by hype. They’re seeing systems. Duke’s elite coaching and Flagg’s dominance. Purdue’s balance and depth. Even Arkansas, despite the loss, is seen as a team with upside—if they solve their finishing problem.
What’s Next? The Road to Indianapolis
The 2026 Final FourIndianapolis is still six months away. But the trajectory is already clear. Duke’s schedule includes tough road games at Kansas and Michigan. Purdue faces a gauntlet of Big Ten rivals, including a rematch with Illinois in January. Arkansas? They’ll need to win at least two of their next three ranked opponents just to stay in the Top 25.
Coaches like Scheyer and Purdue’s Matt Painter aren’t just recruiting—they’re engineering. They’re building rosters that can survive injuries, fatigue, and pressure. And in a sport where one bad night can end a season, that’s the real advantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Duke considered a favorite despite losing key players from last season?
Duke didn’t lose key players—they replaced them with elite freshmen who fit their system. Cooper Flagg, now a sophomore, is the engine, and Jon Scheyer has surrounded him with role players who don’t need to score to impact the game. Their defensive discipline and offensive structure make them resilient, even with roster turnover.
What makes Purdue’s roster different from other top teams?
Purdue doesn’t rely on a single superstar. Instead, they’ve built a balanced roster with size, shooting, and defensive versatility. Their transfers filled specific needs, and their returning players have improved their decision-making. Analysts see them as the most complete team—capable of beating anyone on any night.
Can Arkansas turn things around before the NCAA Tournament?
It’s possible, but unlikely unless their veteran guards—Karter Knox and D.J. Wagner—step up. Right now, their offense is too dependent on freshmen. Calipari’s shortened rotation in the Duke game revealed a lack of depth beyond their top three scorers. Winning at least two of their next three ranked opponents is essential to stay in contention.
Why do so many analysts project Duke and Purdue in the Final Four?
Because both teams have clear identities. Duke has a transcendent talent in Flagg and elite coaching. Purdue has depth, structure, and a coach who maximizes every player’s role. Unlike teams built on hype, these programs have systems that survive injuries, slumps, and pressure. That’s why they’re the only two constants across nearly every projection.
How does the 2025-26 season compare to previous years in terms of parity?
This season has less parity at the top. Last year, seven teams had legitimate Final Four claims. This year, only Duke and Purdue stand out as clear frontrunners. The rest of the field is either rebuilding (like Arkansas), inconsistent (like Kentucky), or too thin (like Florida). The gap between the elite and the rest is wider than it’s been since 2018.
What’s the biggest risk for Purdue’s championship hopes?
Injury. Purdue’s depth is strong, but if their starting center or primary playmaker goes down, their offensive rhythm could stall. Unlike Duke, they don’t have a player who can single-handedly carry them through a slump. Their success hinges on staying healthy and maintaining their defensive intensity over a long season.
