The Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal CF are set to lock horns in a must-win Champions League League Phase matchSignal-Iduna-Park on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 20:00 UTC. With both teams clinging to slim hopes of advancing to the knockout rounds, this fifth-round fixture isn’t just another game—it’s a lifeline. And it’s shaping up to be a fireworks display, despite one critical question: Can Dortmund hold the line without their best defender?
Defensive Void at Signal-Iduna-Park
The biggest shadow over Dortmund’s preparations is the absence of Ramy Bensebaini, the 29-year-old Algerian left-back whose composure and pace have been vital to their defensive structure. His injury—reported as a hamstring strain after the 3-3 draw with VfB Stuttgart—leaves a gaping hole on the flank, especially against a Villarreal side that thrives on width and quick transitions. Without him, Dortmund’s backline, already inconsistent in away games, looks even more vulnerable. The Signal-Iduna-Park, roaring with 81,365 fans, will be louder than ever—but will it be enough to cover for the defensive lapse?
Attacking Firepower on Both Sides
Here’s the thing: neither team knows how to play defensively. Borussia Dortmund, under manager Niko Kovac, have averaged a staggering 3.25 goals per game in elite competitions this season. Their last four home matches? All saw at least three goals. Even their losses came with goals galore. Meanwhile, Villarreal, managed by veteran Marcelino García Toral, have scored in 10 of their last 11 matches across all competitions, netting 2.66 goals per game in their last six. Their attacking trio—uninjured and firing—isn’t just dangerous; they’re unpredictable.
FootballPredictions.com sees this as a classic clash of styles: Dortmund’s explosive front line versus Villarreal’s relentless counter-attacking rhythm. Their prediction? A 2-2 draw. And they’re not alone. The site strongly backs “Both Teams to Score” and “Over 2.5 Goals,” even suggesting “Over 3.5 Goals” as a high-reward option. It’s a bold call—but not a crazy one. In their last five Champions League meetings with Spanish sides, Dortmund have averaged 3.4 goals per match. Villarreal, in their last three away European games, have scored in every one.
Contrasting Predictions, Same Stakes
But here’s the twist: Forebet.com sees it differently. They’re forecasting an “Under 2.5 Goals” outcome, calling it a “tightly contested affair.” Why? Because Villarreal’s recent away form has been cautious, and Dortmund’s midfield—often overloaded in high-press games—could struggle to maintain control under pressure. It’s a valid counterpoint. But history says otherwise. Since 2020, 78% of Dortmund’s home Champions League matches have seen over 2.5 goals. And Villarreal? They’ve played in six of the last eight European matches where both teams scored.
It’s not just about goals. It’s about momentum. Dortmund’s home record this season (W-D-W-D) suggests they’re unbeaten in their last four at Signal-Iduna-Park. Villarreal’s away record? Two wins, two draws, one loss. They’re not intimidated. And they’ve got something to prove after their dramatic 2021/22 semi-final run under Unai Emery—a run that still echoes in their locker room.
History, Pressure, and European Legacy
This isn’t just about group standings. For Borussia Dortmund, founded in 1909, this is about reclaiming their identity as Europe’s attacking giants. Their 1997 Champions League title still defines them. For Villarreal CF, established in 1923, this is about proving they’re more than just a “small club.” Their rise from a town of 50,000 to Champions League contenders is one of modern football’s most inspiring stories. Now, they’re on the cusp of repeating their 2022 heroics.
ESPN (Game ID 757727) will broadcast the match live, and UEFA’s Match ID 2045977 confirms the fixture’s official status. But the real drama? It’s in the stands. In Dortmund, fans will chant for their team to break through. In Villarreal’s coastal town, supporters will gather in bars, eyes glued to screens, hoping their “Yellow Submarine” can sink a giant.
What’s Next? The Knockout Door Is Still Ajar
Win this, and Dortmund move within striking distance of the top two. Lose, and they’ll need a miracle in the final two games. Villarreal? A win puts them level on points with the group leaders. A draw? Still alive. A loss? Their fate slips into the hands of other results. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
And here’s what no one’s talking about: Kovac’s tactical gamble. Will he push for the win with a 4-2-3-1, leaving the flanks exposed? Or will he drop back, sacrifice attack, and hope for a 1-0? If he chooses caution, the crowd will turn. If he chooses fire, the defense might collapse. Either way, the pressure is immense.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Ramy Bensebaini’s absence affect Borussia Dortmund’s chances?
Bensebaini’s injury leaves Dortmund vulnerable on the left flank, where he provided both defensive cover and attacking width. In his absence, the team has relied on 21-year-old full-back Jonathan Reis, who has only started two Champions League matches this season. Opponents like Villarreal, who average 4.7 crosses per game away from home, will target this weakness. Dortmund’s last two home games without Bensebaini saw them concede 5 goals in 180 minutes.
Why do experts disagree on whether this match will be high-scoring or tight?
FootballPredictions.com bases its Over 2.5 goals forecast on Dortmund’s 3.25 goals per game average and Villarreal’s attacking consistency. Forebet.com, however, looks at Villarreal’s recent away caution and Dortmund’s midfield fatigue after back-to-back 90-minute matches. The truth? Both models are right—Dortmund’s attack is lethal, but Villarreal’s counter-pressing can stifle space. It’s likely to be open, but not necessarily chaotic.
What’s the historical significance of this match for Villarreal?
Villarreal has never beaten Dortmund in Europe—three losses and one draw in their four previous meetings. But their 2021/22 Champions League semi-final run, which included eliminating Bayern Munich, proved they can compete with the elite. A win here would be their first-ever away victory against a German club in the Champions League, cementing their status as a genuine European force beyond their size.
Could this match decide who advances from the group?
Absolutely. Both teams enter the match with 5 points from four games. The group leader has 8. A win for either side puts them within one point of the top. A draw keeps both alive but makes the final matchday far more complicated. With only two spots available, this is essentially a knockout game in all but name.
Where can fans watch the match live?
ESPN (Game ID 757727) will broadcast the match live in North America and select regions. In Europe, it’s available via UEFA’s official streaming platform and local broadcasters like Sky Sports in the UK and DAZN in Germany. UEFA’s Match ID 2045977 confirms the official broadcast rights, and the Champions League podcast will offer post-match analysis with expert breakdowns.
What’s the weather forecast for the match day in Dortmund?
Temperatures are expected to hover around 4°C (39°F) with light rain and wind gusts up to 25 km/h. The damp pitch could slow down the game slightly, but it won’t dampen the atmosphere. In fact, wet conditions often favor Dortmund’s high-press style, as opponents struggle to maintain possession. Expect more long balls and second-chance goals.
